June 1, 2024 – In a significant policy shift, President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons for limited strikes inside Russian territory. This marks another broken taboo in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which began 27 months ago with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A Pattern of Escalation
Since repelling Russia’s initial march on Kyiv, Ukraine has persistently sought increased support from Western allies. Each request—from ammunition to fighter jets—was initially met with hesitation, fearing escalation. However, each subsequent approval has seen no immediate retaliation from Russia, making previously unthinkable support the new norm.
Despite recent deliveries of US weaponry, Washington had restricted Ukraine from using them to strike Russian territory. This restraint has now been lifted, following a surprise Russian assault on the northeastern Kharkiv region and parallel moves by European nations to relax similar restrictions.
Official Announcements and Reactions
During a visit to Prague, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the policy change: “Ukraine came to us requesting authorization to use defensive weapons near Kharkiv, including against Russian forces massing on the Russian side of the border. President Biden has approved this request.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the decision as a “step forward” that will aid in defending the Kharkiv region. However, analysts are divided on the potential impact of this new policy.
Analyst Perspectives
Some experts argue that allowing Ukraine to strike into Russia, even with shorter-range missiles like the GMLRS (with a range of around 70 kilometers), will hinder Russia’s operations. Kateryna Stepanenko from the Institute for the Study of War noted the policy would “blunt” Russia’s offensive in Kharkiv but preserve much of Russia’s operational sanctuary.
Franz-Stefan Gady of the International Institute for Strategic Studies echoed this sentiment, suggesting the strikes will complicate Russian military logistics but not decisively alter the conflict’s trajectory. Mathieu Boulegue from the Center for European Policy Analysis described the policy change as an “extra booster” rather than a game-changer.
A Broader Context of Fading Red Lines
The US joins several European countries in lifting restrictions on how Ukraine can use Western-supplied weapons. Russia has repeatedly issued nuclear threats in response to such decisions, aiming to deter Western support. Despite these threats, the West has progressively enabled Ukraine to conduct more aggressive operations.
Russia has already endured Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons on territories it claims, such as Crimea. Despite previous warnings, Ukraine has continued these operations without provoking the severe consequences Russia threatened.
A New Chapter or More of the Same?
While this policy shift signifies a new phase in the war, it is unclear if it will lead to a significant change in Ukraine’s ability to repel Russian forces. The restriction on using the long-range ATACMS missiles remains, limiting Ukraine’s capacity to strike deeper into Russian territory.
As the conflict continues, the global community watches closely to see if this latest development will merely complicate Russian military operations or truly alter the course of the war.