In a significant announcement that has drawn widespread international concern, Russia has declared its intention to revoke its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This move comes amid escalating tensions between Russia and the United States, further complicating the already delicate relationship between the two nuclear superpowers.
Mikhail Ulyanov, the Russian representative to international nuclear agencies in Vienna, made the announcement following comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting that Russia might resume nuclear testing for the first time in 33 years. Ulyanov clarified on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), stating, “Russia plans to revoke ratification (which took place in the year 2000) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The aim is to be on equal footing with the #US who signed the Treaty but didn’t ratify it. Revocation doesn’t mean the intention to resume nuclear tests.”
The CTBT, signed by the United States in 1996 but not ratified by the Senate, has been observed under a moratorium on nuclear testing by successive U.S. administrations. The U.S. State Department expressed deep concern about Russia’s decision, stating, “A move like this by any state party needlessly endangers the global norm against nuclear explosive testing.”
Robert Floyd, the executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), also expressed concern, describing it as “concerning and deeply unfortunate if any state signatory were to reconsider its ratification of the CTBT.”
President Putin’s suggestion that Russia could revoke its CTBT agreement came amid increased discussions about nuclear weapons. Putin stated, “As a rule, experts say, with a new weapon – you need to make sure that the special warhead will work without failures.” If Russia were to conduct a nuclear test, it would be the first since 1990, when the Soviet Union carried out its last test, marking a significant step backward in non-proliferation efforts since the Cold War.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian officials have frequently highlighted the country’s nuclear arsenal, the world’s largest, in an attempt to deter other nations from assisting Ukraine in resisting the invasion.
Vyacheslav Volodin, the chair of the State Duma, announced that the Russian parliament would promptly consider whether revoking Russia’s CTBT ratification was necessary.
Recent satellite images have revealed construction activities at the old Russian test site in Novaya Zemlya, an Arctic archipelago, and similar activities at the old U.S. testing ground in the Nevada desert, and the Chinese site in Xinjiang province. These developments indicate growing concerns about the fragility of the CTBT, particularly as international tensions rise, and nuclear powers expand or modernize their arsenals.
National security officials in the Trump administration discussed the possibility of resuming U.S. nuclear tests in May 2020, but the moratorium remained in place, a stance reaffirmed by the Biden administration. To ease tensions, the U.S. recently offered to open its Nevada test site to international inspectors to demonstrate its commitment to avoiding a test detonation.
Heather Williams, the director of a project on nuclear issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned, “If Russia withdrew ratification from the CTBT or did test a nuclear weapon, this would be a major strategic and diplomatic provocation. It would undermine one of the few remaining agreements managing nuclear risk, since Russia suspended participation in the 2010 New Start treaty earlier this year.”
Pavel Podvig, an independent expert on Russian nuclear forces based in Geneva, noted that the recent activities at Novaya Zemlya were routine but expressed concern about the de-ratification of the CTBT. He also highlighted Putin’s statement that Russia would not test unless the U.S. did, which provides some reassurance regarding immediate testing intentions.
The CTBT, opened for signature in 1996, has been signed by 187 countries and ratified by 178. However, for the test ban to enter into force, it requires ratification by 44 states that participated in negotiating the agreement and had nuclear power or research reactors at the time. Currently, eight countries, including the U.S., China, North Korea, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, and Pakistan, have yet to ratify the ban, further complicating the global nuclear disarmament efforts.